It's All Come Down To This (well, and next week too)

South Georgia vs. Omaha. It's all come down to this.

Well, this and next week, depending on how this week goes. But since we can't do two things at once or play two games at once, we're going to focus on the penultimate week of the season and Omaha as Tormenta's opponent and worry about next week, well, next week.

There's a lot on the line Saturday night as Tormenta plays their final home match of the 2024 season, taking on an Omaha team that still has a lot to play for despite already clinching a playoff spot and at least a home game for the first two rounds of the playoffs. Lets run through the various possibilities for both teams with just two games remaining.

For Omaha, the Owls lead USL1 with 42 points through 20 games, giving them a four point edge over Madison for the Players Shield as the regular season champions. Omaha can clinch the top spot in the regular season with either a win (which Tormenta can not really afford, more on that below) or a draw/loss and a Madison draw/loss. 

As the first tiebreaker is wins and Omaha has 13 while Madison has 10, the only way Madison can claim the title is to win their final two games against Knoxville Saturday and Northern Colorado in the season finale and have Omaha get no more than one point in their final two games against Tormenta and Central Valley. That would give the Mingos 44 points to Omaha's 43. 

In Omaha's previous six matches, they've only surrendered four goals, with two of those coming against Northern Colorado in a game they won 3-2 in Windsor. 

Tormenta, meanwhile, sits just one point behind Richmond for the final playoff spot (and a likely first round matchup with Omaha in the playoffs.) South Georgia let a golden opportunity to be in the control of their fate this past weekend when they saw a 2-0 halftime lead slip away, with Richmond scoring twice in the second half, including a second half stoppage time goal, to earn a draw and keep themselves a point ahead of Tormenta. 

If you're an optimist, you'll say that Tormenta has only lost once since the calendar flipped to August. However, in those six games, South Georgia has not managed to win a game, drawing five times and losing to Northern Colorado. Fortunately for Tormenta, Richmond has only managed to win twice during that time and allowed Tormenta to remain close going into the final two games.

As for the playoff scenario this week, the only way Tormenta is eliminated is if they lose to Omaha and Richmond win over Chattanooga. (We are all Red Wovles fans this week.) With a Tormenta win and a Richmond loss, Tormenta would move into 8th. A Tormenta draw and Richmond loss (which, would mean a Chattanooga win) would then move to tiebreakers for the 8th spot as Tormenta, Richmond and Chattanooga would all be sitting at 21 points. In that case, the Red Wolves, by virtue of having six win, would be in control of the final playoff spot with one week to go. 

When the two teams matched up back in May, Omaha jumped out to a two goal lead just 12 minutes into the game. Tormenta tried to fight back, getting a goal from Niall Watson in first half stoppage time, but Omaha would add two goals in the second half and Pedro Fonseca's goal wasn't enough as Tormenta fell 4-2.

After missing last week's game, My oldest and I should be back out at Tormenta Stadium on Saturday covering the match for the Statesboro Herald (well, I will, my son will just be a fan) and we'll have a full recap and quotes online Sunday morning sometime.