Crazy Eights

Just a random USL1 playoff bracket.
No particular reason for using the 2022 edition.

Is it too early to talk about playoff positioning? We're in mid-August and the regular season doesn't end until late October, which seems like there's plenty of time left. But Tormenta only has seven regular season games remaining. I can't believe it either, but I counted. On my fingers and everything just to be sure. My oldest and I were talking this weekend about how fast the season has gone by and while there's still a few months left, as Yogi Berra said, it's getting late early out there.

This year, the top eight teams make the playoffs. From the standpoint of determining the best team, having a playoff bracket where 67 percent of the teams make the playoffs is a terrible idea. From the standpoint of regular season intrigue and keeping more teams engaged for longer into the season, it's a brilliant idea. If you think it's a brilliant or terrible idea likely depends on your feelings about using the playoffs to determine the league champion (and quite possibly your team's position in the standings as we speak.)

There's going to be a lot of math and numbers here. I'm going to do my best not to get bogged down in them, but be forewarned. 

Going back to 2019 (excluding 2020 because, well... yeah), the team finishing eighth in the standings has averaged 1.25 points per game. The high-water mark came in 2022 when Central Valley finished eighth with 1.33 points per game and the low point was in 2019 when FC Tucson finished with 1.17 points per game.

In this current season, setting aside the standings and just going by points per game, Chattanooga is currently eighth with 1.14, well below the historical average for what is needed to claim the eighth spot in the standings. There's a clear separation from the top seven with Union Omaha leading the way with 1.92 ppg down to Northern Colorado and Spokane tied at 1.5 ppg rounding out the top seven. 

That leaves the eighth spot.

Chattanooga and South Georgia are the only other teams earning more than 1.0 ppg (Tormenta is at 1.07) while Central Valley, Richmond and Lexington are at 0.92 or lower.

Historically, eighth place teams in USL League One have not been great. On average, they finish the year with an negative 4.5 goal differential and this year. Going into the weekend, Chattanooga has a -7 goal differential on the season. You don't need me to tell you that's not good. Tormenta, sitting one spot behind them in both the current standings and standings based on points per game, is at an even goal differential. That's not great, but it's not negative. 

In fact, both Chattanooga and Spokane have given up more goals than they've scored in regular season play this year but are both in playoff position if the season ended today. (There would also be a lot of confused people if the season ended today as we all are kind of expecting it to run through October and then playoffs.)

John Morrissey of the great @USLTactics and USL Tactics substack had his playoff odds listed in his August 6 post and in it there are six  teams that have at least a 92% chance of making the playoff field. (Greenville, Omaha, Madison, Charlotte, Knoxville and Northern Colorado) with three teams (Spokane, South Georgia and Chattanooga) all between a 30-41 percent chance of making it in. His projections have Spokane finishing with 26.0 expected points, with Tormenta at 25.7 and Chattanooga at 25.4. Obviously no one is getting fractional points from a match, so it's fair to say it's really close. 

If 26 is the magic number to get to the playoffs, that would be on the low end of what has been needed in the past. 26 points over 22 games comes out to 1.18 points per game and would mean Tormenta would need 10 points over its final seven matches. Certainly doable for South Georgia, but it would mean playing at a much better clip over their final seven regular season games. The Red Wolves would need 10 points from their remaining eight games to get there while Spokane needs just eight points over their final 10 to get to 26.

This, obviously, is just based on projections and there's no guarantee that 26 points even is the magic number and it shouldn't be the goal for any of the teams competing for the final spots in the playoff bracket. And there's always a chance that Fuego or Lexington or Richmond get hot and leapfrog their way into the playoffs. (That last sentence is not there just to cover myself in the event it happens and someone looks back at this for unknown reasons and calls me out for ignoring them. You read it here. It could happen.)

Tormenta takes on Northern Colorado Saturday at Tormenta Stadium at 7:30 p.m. Look for a preview of that match on Friday right here.