Never Tell Me The Odds

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After a disappointing 1-0 loss to Madison on Wednesday, Tormenta now completes their 10-day, three-city world tour with a trip to Miami for the final group stage game of the Jagermeister Cup. They are mathematically alive to advance but they are essentially the same as Lloyd Christmas going out with Mary Swanson in the movie Dumb and Dumber.

    Lloyd Christmas: I want to ask you a question, straight out, flat out, and I want you to give me an honest answer. What do you think the chances are of a guy like you and girl like me ending up together?

    Mary Swanson: Well Lloyd, that's difficult to say. We really don't...

    Lloyd Christmas: Hit me with it! Just give it to me straight! I came a long way just to see you Mary, just.... The least you could do is level with me. What are my chances?

    Mary Swanson: Not good.

    [the background soundtrack music suddenly stops]

    Lloyd Christmas: [he gulps, his mouth twitching] You mean, not good like one out of a hundred?

    Mary Swanson: I'd say more like one out of a million.

    Lloyd Christmas: [long pause while he processes what he's heard] So you're telling me there's a chance? YEAH!

Tormenta currently sits in fourth place in the group with a 1-1-1 record, four points, and an even goal differential (six scored, six conceded). Despite being in fourth, there is still a path for Tormenta to advance. According to the USL website all it will take is:

  • A win against Miami in regulation in which they score 2 or more goals AND
  • Tampa Bay losing in regulation against Charleston with Tampa Bay being shut out AND
  • Greenville losing to FC Naples while scoring three or fewer goals
If that happens, there would be a three-way tie for the Group and South Georgia would advance based on goals scored in group play.

So that's all it'll take. They're practically on to the next round already. But first they have to get past Miami, who also has their own Lloyd Christmas-like path to advance. Miami (1-1-1, 5 points, and also six goals for and against) just need the following:

  • A regulation win against Tormenta scoring two or more goals AND
  • Tampa Bay to lose in a penalty shootout at Charleston while being shut out AND
  • Greenville to win in a penalty shootout with Naples while scoring three or fewer goals.
Clearly a much more difficult path for them and they should probably just rest everyone on their side. In fact, let University of Miami mascot Sebastian the Ibis play goalkeeper for a true battle of the ibises. 

Tampa Bay (2-0-1, 7 points) is currently atop the group and they have the most scenarios that would allow them to advance while Greenville also has at least one simple path to advancing. If Tampa Bay wins in regulation, they're through to the next round. If Greenville wins in regulation and Tampa Bay wins in the penalty shootout, Greenville moves on.

If you're trying to follow all this in real time, the Greenville/Naples game and the Miami/Tormenta games both kick off at 7 p.m. with Charleston/Tampa Bay staring a half hour later. 

Enjoy the game(s) and enjoy your weekend. 

 


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